Sowing the Seeds of Democracy (or Something Like It)

It's just after midnight in Baghdad. Does Iraq have a new constitution? Well, I suppose that would depend on who you were asking.

It would seem that they do have a draft constitution. But there are issues to be worked out yet. So it's a constitution, but it's not one. It's ready, but they're giving themselves three more days to hammer out the issues that remain, so it's not ready.

This is very typical of this mess we've created. Nothing is ever as it seems, nor is it as we're told.

Appearantly, the major sticking point is over federalism. Specifically, the Kurds and the Shia want to create states (or whatever they will call the sub-units of Iraq) that will have most of the power over directing the course of affairs within their borders, with a weak federal government. The Sunnis fear that this will be used and abused in order to repress the Sunnis. The biggest concern is that the revenue from the oil wells will go to the regional governments, rather than the federal government. As most of the oil in Iraq is either in Kurdish territory to the north, or in Shia territory to the south, the Sunnis will not see much, if any, of the benefit of oil sales. As a result, the Sunni are afraid that the Kurds and the Shia will use the oil revenues to keep the Sunnis down.

The constitution will face a referendum in October. After boycotting the elections in January, the Sunnis are realizing that they need to take an active role in the referendum, lest they end up in a nation that they had no say in creating; one that they feel will work against their interests. And if the Sunnis do turn out for the referendum and vote to block the new constitution, then Iraq will be back at square-one. And will the US government continue to talk about pulling out of Iraq in 2006 if the Iraqis cannot put together a permanent method of ruling themselves? Perhaps, and if they do, it will be a bigger mistake than going into Iraq to start with.

I know that Bush is anxious to get out of Iraq because of how it affecting his poll numbers. However, as Colin Powell pointed out to him before the US went in; if you break it, you own it. We've broken Iraq, and we need to put it together and in functional condition (that means not just the government, but the infrastructure we've destroyed, as well) before we get out. Not doing so will surrender any sort of moral high ground we claimed to have in the entire Iraq situation and will further erode world opinion of the United States.